The Quiet Retreat: Why Big Oil isn’t leading the transition

In its November 2025 piece, The Quiet Retreat, Carbon Tracker argues that, despite political calls for more oil and gas financing, many international oil companies are acting as if long-term demand growth is uncertain. After a decade of capital discipline, investment in new oil and gas supply has stabilised well below the 2014-2015 peak, and more cash is being returned to shareholders rather than used to expand production. Episode 1 examines what is driving that behaviour, and what it signals for investment decisions across the energy system.

Linked blog: https://carbontracker.org/the-quiet-retreat-why-the-oil-and-gas-industry-is-implementing-its-own-decline-even-as-the-iea-resurrects-an-old-growth-scenario/

Further reading:

The Energy Mix, ‘Say vs. Do Chasm’ Shows Fossil Industry Facing Rapid Decline, Crumbling Demand

IEA, Current Policies Scenarios

Bain & Company, Positioning Oil & Gas Companies for Today’s Capital Markets