Aviation sector’s climate claims unsupported by credible transition plans
New analysis finds over-reliance on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and lack of investment in zero-emission tech, risking long-term decarbonisation failure
Awaiting take-off
Why aviation’s net zero plan still doesn’t fly.
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Key industry players are failing to align stated decarbonisation ambitions with the necessary capital expenditure and R&D allocation.
Investment into conventional aircraft dwarfs current efforts to scale up new propulsion aircraft (electric, hydrogen and hybrid). Over 12x as many conventional aircraft were ordered in 2024 as new propulsion aircraft.
Locking in long-lived fossil fuel infrastructure risks stranding capital and undermining climate goals. Whereas industry leaders who pivot early toward new propulsion aircraft stand to gain a competitive edge as regulations tighten and customer demand for low-carbon travel rises.
This report examines the current market for new propulsion aircraft in light of the role they will need to play in decarbonising the aviation sector. Close attention is paid to the activities of the dominant manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, and major European airlines such as IAG. The advantages and disadvantages of different technological options for cutting emissions, including “sustainable aviation fuels” (SAF), are assessed in turn.
Our analysis is principally aimed at the investment community and policymakers seeking to understand the sector’s progress to date, with recommendations for how to hold industry actors accountable and accelerate action.
Quotes
Rich Collett-White, Carbon Tracker Analyst and report lead author, said: “Fossil fuel assets are being locked in on the promise of SAF, despite widespread concerns around feedstock availability, opportunity costs and their true lifecycle emissions. The emphasis on ‘SAF-compatible’ aircraft is to some extent being used to maintain a social licence to operate, in a similar way to the gas industry’s promotion of “hydrogen-ready boilers”.
Report co-author Saidrasul Ashrafkhanov said: "Focussing excessively on SAF risks taking the sector down a dead end. Investors should call for more granular breakdowns of OEMs' capex and R&D spend to date and encourage a higher share of spending to be allocated to zero-emission flight." "Policymakers, meanwhile, should consider what more support is need to drive genuinely scalable decarbonisation in aviation, potentially in the form of grants or zero-emission aircraft mandates, similar to those used for EVs."